Last Book Read: The Next 100 Years - George Friedman
In The Next 100 Years, Friedman attempts to map out geo-politically what may happen over the next century. Unlike most other geo-political analyzers, Friedman thinks America is headed for a Golden Age. He argues that nations go through three stages - barbarism, civilization and decadence. The final stage of decadence is a period of nihilism when nothing particular is valued and society becomes complacent and self-distracted and thus unproductive. As America is still young (and undisciplined) it still has yet to evolve in Friedman's view. Given effective decisions made during World War I and World War II which minimized American casualties and cost of war, the US quickly achieved superpower status. Wining the Cold War allowed the US to become the first sole superpower and by having complete global dominance of the oceans, it is able to easily project its power anywhere it chooses. And this power projection is unrestrained as the US is the first nation in history to achieve this global dominance. Future wars will only increase American determination and technological advancements and, allowing the US to further gain from every conflict it fights.
Friedman has an interesting theory about American history occurring in 50 year cycles, and what works in solving one crisis will not work in the next, rather something of its opposite is required instead, For instance Roosevelt's New Deal had to be later followed by Reagan's pro-business/ lower taxes economics in the next cycle. What worked once won't work again. And by that logic it would seem that it's time to move away from the sacred Reaganomics.
While discussing American technological capability, Freidman makes interesting points about pragmatism and American philosophy. American culture, he states, "is an uneasy melding of the Bible and the computer." "The significance of an idea is in its practical consequences." An idea without practical consequences, it follows, lacks meaning. The entire notion of contemplative reason as an end in itself is excluded, as is seen in the Anglo- American philosophy that rejects European and Continental metaphysics. Computers reduce everything to data, they embody pragmatism. But that data, it could be argued, is information that does not include meaning. The computer "represents the unique manifestation of the American concept of reason and reality. . . [it] represents a powerful, reductionist force." This is why America is so focused and effective. It also explains the differences in American thought from Old World European ideas.
I won't go into detail about Friedman's predictions, but I certainly disagree with him on some matters of military strategy. For instance, he ignores Russia's nuclear force - one that is maintained as a matter of utmost importance precisely to counter a foreign invasion of the kind that Freidman thinks might be conventionally possible. Furthermore, he claims Japan already has a world class Navy and Air Force. They don't, and I don't know why he would say this. Also, he claims that the US "Battlestars" will be vulnerable to a multiple missile attack. But, if we look at the layers of defense systems a Carrier Battle Group has, it would seem just as unlikely that a Battlestar could be destroyed with certainty as a US carrier. With the introduction of beam weapons, defensive systems would likely be more capable. Finally, he thinks the US force of 2050 will be only hypersonic planes, of which only a few hundred survive. But its already clear that we will have weapon systems such as the F-35 still in use and we will just be replacing our B-2 and B-52 forces. I imagine we will still have a vastly numerous amount of legacy-class systems and that it is unlikely that most of them could be destroyed in one attack.
What's important here is not the details but why Freidman makes these claims. History repeats itself, and Friedman uses this to extrapolate future data, and given that he is an advisor to the US government, what he thinks may hold considerable weight. Most interesting is how this study shows why the US does what it does, and how this thinking extends back centuries and every historical step we take builds upon some basic thinking. For instance, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are not important for us to win by achieving specific goals. We are fighting them simply to disrupt the Middle East so that the Muslim world (or anyone else) cannot unite to become a dominate Asian power.
Even given Freidman's optimism, it seems that the end of the twenty-first century will bring us right back to where we are, experiencing a culture conflict with the rest of the world and struggling with issues of debt and immigration. While he may not be accurate, his thinking does illuminate the development of America and where we are in the course of that progress.
Showing posts with label Military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Military. Show all posts
Monday, June 06, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Odyssey Dawn
Unsurprisingly, the Libya conflict has resulted in outrageous political claims. Although we have been fighting two wars for a decade, without major calls for cessation, this much more limited conflict has drawn attack from the right. The obvious conclusion: only wars started by Republicans are acceptable, any Democratic operation is reckless and a waste of American resources. As usual talk is the opposite of reality. The current president hasn't started anything, certainly not three wars. He has worked on ending one (as much as it will ever be really ended) and has joined one by request of England, France, the Arab League and the U.N. Whatever the real political reason for confronting Libya (including the 180 turn by France and Italy since 1986), it seems that 2011 has presented real opportunities for democracy. As Michio Kaku has recently discussed, the spread of democracy is an important development in transitioning to a Type I civilization. This is my argument for supporting Operation Odyssey Dawn, along with the fact that the Libyan actions of the 1980s have not been fully resolved (Reagan would be proud) and I believe it will also present an opportunity to reassess military spending in more practical terms.
Monday, June 28, 2010
St Cloud 2010 Air Show
Great Minnesota Air Show 2010.06.26-27
After the precipitous disasters of the 2008 season, I began to wonder when St Cloud may be large enough to consider having an air show. My answer came on December 7th 2009, with the release of the jet team schedules.
The main attraction was of course the Blue Angels, but the real star of the show was the F-22, not only because of its fifth generation advancements, and its unprecedented maneuverability. More important is its rarity, with only 18 global appearances this year (up from roughly 12 last year ). This marked the first Raptor trip to Minnesota, for any F-22. Military statics were sparse: 2 EA-6Bs, NASA's F-18A and an MV-22, along with a last minute surprise of a VFC-111 F-5E.
During my five day adventure, I was able to complete my checklist, viewing all the arrivals and practices, getting close to the Raptor (briefly) and meeting the legendary, yet elusive Zeke. The only glitch, besides the weather making photography problematic, was missing part of the Raptor practice, as I was coming back from lunch, but I did get the experience of having my car buzzed by Zeke.
Thanks to the Great Minnesota Air Show team for making that a possibility, let's hope for a continued tradition in the future. Also, thanks to Zeke, Gap, Gabe, Zeke's family and the rest of the Raptor team.
Full Photo Album
After the precipitous disasters of the 2008 season, I began to wonder when St Cloud may be large enough to consider having an air show. My answer came on December 7th 2009, with the release of the jet team schedules.
The main attraction was of course the Blue Angels, but the real star of the show was the F-22, not only because of its fifth generation advancements, and its unprecedented maneuverability. More important is its rarity, with only 18 global appearances this year (up from roughly 12 last year ). This marked the first Raptor trip to Minnesota, for any F-22. Military statics were sparse: 2 EA-6Bs, NASA's F-18A and an MV-22, along with a last minute surprise of a VFC-111 F-5E.
During my five day adventure, I was able to complete my checklist, viewing all the arrivals and practices, getting close to the Raptor (briefly) and meeting the legendary, yet elusive Zeke. The only glitch, besides the weather making photography problematic, was missing part of the Raptor practice, as I was coming back from lunch, but I did get the experience of having my car buzzed by Zeke.
Thanks to the Great Minnesota Air Show team for making that a possibility, let's hope for a continued tradition in the future. Also, thanks to Zeke, Gap, Gabe, Zeke's family and the rest of the Raptor team.
Full Photo Album
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Aviation Nation 2009
Nellis AFB, Las Vegas, NV 2009.11.14-15
Nellis AFB, being probably the most active and largest base in the Air Force, as well as the home of the Thunderbirds, is now the site of the Air Force's premier air show.
Performers (military jet):
Performers (military jet):Thunderbirds
Nellis flyby (F-15C, F-16C, A-10C, F-22A)
A-10C demo, and QF-4E heritage flight
C-17A demo
F/A-18F demo
Royal Netherlands F-16B demo
Static Displays (highlights):
F-22A, F-15E, F-16C, A-10 
F-15C and F-16C aggressors
F-16C
F/A-18C
F/A-18FB-1B
B-52H
C-17A
HC-130
HC-130
C-5A
T-38C
MV-22
RC-135
E-3
Friday, November 20, 2009
Nellis Range Tour
Nevada outback road trip 2009.11.16
I couldn't go to Las Vegas without going out to see the various military locations around the Nellis Range. Besides wanting to bring to life some of the remotest areas and the "loneliest roads," there is something captivating about the historical uniqueness of this area. The isolation, the potential secrets - the mystique. All of it waiting "out there". Here are the dark, hidden inner workings of the Cold War, and the who-knows-what activities that are surely still conducted. So, with a large supply of water and a small but precise survival kit, one that would let Bear Grylls live comfortably, we set off at first light to circumnavigate this immense area.
One thing that becomes quite clear by the time one leaves Indian Springs is how perfect this place is for covert activities. The mountains seem to become a giant natural wall that seals off the NTTR on the south, west, most of the north and the east.
After a detour into Death Valley we passed some of the visible radar stations of the Tolicha Peak Electronic Combat Range. Despite a Green Flag in progress, there were no aircraft out at his point. With the exception of Goldfield, an extremely aged and run-down gas-less town, there is nothing between Beatty and Tonopah. Well, except a few brothels (some shut down), some radar domes, a strange hillside construct, and a gas station abandoned eons ago about 25 miles north of Beatty. After six hours, we reached Tonopah, where we stopped for lunch and to gas up for the remote leg of the trip.
We then set out on Highway 6, the "Grand Army of the Republic Highway" (a name which makes me hear the voice of Emperor Palpatine). This highway runs along the north side of the Nellis Range and through the heart of the flight operations, as the Desert and Reveille MOAs extend far beyond the NTTS. Coming out of the Tonopah mountains into the Ralston Valley really gives an introduction into the type of terrain in this region. One can see for twenty miles to the next range, but in that visual space there is nothing. Eventually, as one seems to be making no progress to the other side, roads begin to pop up. After passing the derelict Tonopah Airport, we came to the entrance of the Tonopah Test Range, the original and final home of the F-117. Unfortunately there were no B-2s (or anything else) flying weapons tests.
Looking down AR502 to the Tonopah Test Range
Upon reaching Warm Springs - which is one abandoned building: The Warm Springs Bar & Cafe (apparently built in the late 70s and probably shut down in the late 80s), we turned on to the "Extraterrestrial Highway". Although one could continue on to see other interesting things: the Base Camp airfield a few miles up and the nuclear test sites of Project Faultless and Halligan Mesa. At this point we had passed approximately nine cars since leaving Tonopah.
The first thing one sees past Warm Springs are signs warning of "Low Flying Aircraft", the one here being to changed to "Cow Flying Aircraft". Despite these signs in the valleys of Reveille, Sand Spring, Tikaboo, and Pahranagat, there were no indications of any aircraft. After progressing through the first valley, the road begins to turn through the mountains and into open range farms. This stretch of road gets really long, and attention is required to avoid the cows in the road. The only objects of interest is the occasional body of water, some of it iced over. As expected, the most treacherous part of the journey was between Tonopah and Rachel, particularly after Warm Springs. Finally, after about half an hour without any signs of humanity, a truck passed near the Twin Springs Ranch. From here there were about four cars before Rachel. After passing the Cedar Gate turnoff and entering Queen City Summit Pass, the Sand Spring Valley finally opened. The first thing that was noticeable was a truck moving behind The Farms, possibly to the Area 51 back gate. Secondly the white dots of Rachel were visible, although still twenty miles away, as Rachel sits at the south end of a massive bowl, north of the highway is twenty-five miles of nothing.
After stopping to look down the road to the back gate of Area 51, we headed up to Mailbox Road. Here we stopped at the infamous black mailbox. Some pictures I've seen showed it sporting a KQRS sticker, but this seems to have been removed by 2008. As I photographed it, I noticed that truck parked here was an Area 51 security vehicle, with a Camo Dude listening to the radio (which is apparently an unusual occurrence).
Moving on, we came to Groom Lake Road after a nine hour drive. A fast moving vehicle could be seen approaching Groom Road from Mailbox Road. As this was my first excursion to the area, everything felt intense, and I didn't feel like waiting for whomever it was to show up.
Once again, the sky was silent. There were no exotic, uber-secret flight tests coming from over the mountains. And there were no B-1s, B-52s or A-10s making bombing runs on Range 61. The day was beginning to fade, and after a few brief moments it was time to move on from the surreal, serene isolation back to the hyper-real kinetics of The Strip. Making our way back into mountains, the terrain seemed less isolating. We passed the new Alien Research Center and the shell of the original Alien Jerky building as we moved on to Crystal Springs, a wonderful shaded lake, where there were a large number of vehicles parked without anyone in sight (possibly a commuter lot for clandestine contractors? As it has been reported that cars parked here are unusual, it would seem to indicate extra activity in the area.)
I couldn't go to Las Vegas without going out to see the various military locations around the Nellis Range. Besides wanting to bring to life some of the remotest areas and the "loneliest roads," there is something captivating about the historical uniqueness of this area. The isolation, the potential secrets - the mystique. All of it waiting "out there". Here are the dark, hidden inner workings of the Cold War, and the who-knows-what activities that are surely still conducted. So, with a large supply of water and a small but precise survival kit, one that would let Bear Grylls live comfortably, we set off at first light to circumnavigate this immense area.
After leaving Las Vegas the first point of interest was Creech AFB, There were a few C-17s parked, and a few Predators were being worked on out on the ramp.
One thing that becomes quite clear by the time one leaves Indian Springs is how perfect this place is for covert activities. The mountains seem to become a giant natural wall that seals off the NTTR on the south, west, most of the north and the east.
The next waypoint was passing the "town' of Mercury. If one could, taking Mercury Road into the NTS would lead past a nuclear wasteland of hundreds of Cold War explosions, and as the road turned into Groom Lake Road would go through Station 700 into Area 51 and out to Highway 375 by Rachel.
After a detour into Death Valley we passed some of the visible radar stations of the Tolicha Peak Electronic Combat Range. Despite a Green Flag in progress, there were no aircraft out at his point. With the exception of Goldfield, an extremely aged and run-down gas-less town, there is nothing between Beatty and Tonopah. Well, except a few brothels (some shut down), some radar domes, a strange hillside construct, and a gas station abandoned eons ago about 25 miles north of Beatty. After six hours, we reached Tonopah, where we stopped for lunch and to gas up for the remote leg of the trip.
We then set out on Highway 6, the "Grand Army of the Republic Highway" (a name which makes me hear the voice of Emperor Palpatine). This highway runs along the north side of the Nellis Range and through the heart of the flight operations, as the Desert and Reveille MOAs extend far beyond the NTTS. Coming out of the Tonopah mountains into the Ralston Valley really gives an introduction into the type of terrain in this region. One can see for twenty miles to the next range, but in that visual space there is nothing. Eventually, as one seems to be making no progress to the other side, roads begin to pop up. After passing the derelict Tonopah Airport, we came to the entrance of the Tonopah Test Range, the original and final home of the F-117. Unfortunately there were no B-2s (or anything else) flying weapons tests.
Upon reaching Warm Springs - which is one abandoned building: The Warm Springs Bar & Cafe (apparently built in the late 70s and probably shut down in the late 80s), we turned on to the "Extraterrestrial Highway". Although one could continue on to see other interesting things: the Base Camp airfield a few miles up and the nuclear test sites of Project Faultless and Halligan Mesa. At this point we had passed approximately nine cars since leaving Tonopah.
The first thing one sees past Warm Springs are signs warning of "Low Flying Aircraft", the one here being to changed to "Cow Flying Aircraft". Despite these signs in the valleys of Reveille, Sand Spring, Tikaboo, and Pahranagat, there were no indications of any aircraft. After progressing through the first valley, the road begins to turn through the mountains and into open range farms. This stretch of road gets really long, and attention is required to avoid the cows in the road. The only objects of interest is the occasional body of water, some of it iced over. As expected, the most treacherous part of the journey was between Tonopah and Rachel, particularly after Warm Springs. Finally, after about half an hour without any signs of humanity, a truck passed near the Twin Springs Ranch. From here there were about four cars before Rachel. After passing the Cedar Gate turnoff and entering Queen City Summit Pass, the Sand Spring Valley finally opened. The first thing that was noticeable was a truck moving behind The Farms, possibly to the Area 51 back gate. Secondly the white dots of Rachel were visible, although still twenty miles away, as Rachel sits at the south end of a massive bowl, north of the highway is twenty-five miles of nothing.
After stopping to look down the road to the back gate of Area 51, we headed up to Mailbox Road. Here we stopped at the infamous black mailbox. Some pictures I've seen showed it sporting a KQRS sticker, but this seems to have been removed by 2008. As I photographed it, I noticed that truck parked here was an Area 51 security vehicle, with a Camo Dude listening to the radio (which is apparently an unusual occurrence).
Moving on, we came to Groom Lake Road after a nine hour drive. A fast moving vehicle could be seen approaching Groom Road from Mailbox Road. As this was my first excursion to the area, everything felt intense, and I didn't feel like waiting for whomever it was to show up.
Driving down through the peaceful Pahranagat Valley, the sun began to slowly set, casting a red light. The calmness was unbroken as no Red Force aggressors were coming in from Caliente. At Alamo, 170 miles from the last gas station, we filled up. Once dark, the drive seemed to feel long, this stretch didn't really have much to see. Finally the darkness was broken by the intensity of the Las Vegas lights.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Rome is Burning 2
Douglas Rushkoff explains how our economic situation came to be:
"..Bush’s tax cuts and other measures favoring the rich led to the biggest redistribution of wealth from poor to rich in American history. The result was that the wealthy—the investment class—had more money to invest, or lend, than there were people and businesses looking to borrow. "
"Conservatives are still so angry about New Deal reforms of the 1930s that that they have infused politics and banking with an economic ideology that sees any regulation of worker exploitation or predatory investment as anti-capitalist, anti-American, and even anti-God."
"He’s currently working on a project called “Corporatized,” which will explore how chartered corporations disconnected us from reality." Interesting. Perhaps there is nothing more significant than economics in our "real" life, but it is becoming another method of disconnect in the post-modern or hyper-real world.
The conservatives are so worried that a Democrat might win this election because they do not want a New "New Deal", but the New Deal was a response to a severe economic crisis, and as the conservatives are creating another one, they themselves are perpetuating the need for The New Deal 2: The Sequel.
After seeing SH on Fox News getting angry that Obama might have won the debate and essentially calling him too smart to be president, I'm finally convinced that the Republicans are anti-intellectual, and loathe education, intelligence, as well as public awareness and interaction.
John Gray discusses America's fall:
"The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system."
This is exactly the point I've been promoting. Since the end of the Cold War, we have absolutely wasted our position as sole World Power. We could have been a leader - set an example, created (benevolently) a "New World Order", promoted democracy through peacful means, and raised the standards of living for everyone. But, instead we apparently just wanted to get rich (more rich). So to benefit the American upper class we have pissed off the rest of the world, wasted our military resources on securing unrenewable natural resources and destroyed our own culture (the actual people who have to work for a living). Not only will the forces of war and global economics pressure our relations, but internal corruption will tear apart the future of this country, just like former Empires. As others rise into position of new super-powers, we will not have the resources of strategic "force projection" to reach parity in international disputes. Without economic, military or diplomatic powers, we will no longer be able to project our will onto the world.
"..Bush’s tax cuts and other measures favoring the rich led to the biggest redistribution of wealth from poor to rich in American history. The result was that the wealthy—the investment class—had more money to invest, or lend, than there were people and businesses looking to borrow. "
"Conservatives are still so angry about New Deal reforms of the 1930s that that they have infused politics and banking with an economic ideology that sees any regulation of worker exploitation or predatory investment as anti-capitalist, anti-American, and even anti-God."
"He’s currently working on a project called “Corporatized,” which will explore how chartered corporations disconnected us from reality." Interesting. Perhaps there is nothing more significant than economics in our "real" life, but it is becoming another method of disconnect in the post-modern or hyper-real world.
The conservatives are so worried that a Democrat might win this election because they do not want a New "New Deal", but the New Deal was a response to a severe economic crisis, and as the conservatives are creating another one, they themselves are perpetuating the need for The New Deal 2: The Sequel.
After seeing SH on Fox News getting angry that Obama might have won the debate and essentially calling him too smart to be president, I'm finally convinced that the Republicans are anti-intellectual, and loathe education, intelligence, as well as public awareness and interaction.
John Gray discusses America's fall:
"The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system."
This is exactly the point I've been promoting. Since the end of the Cold War, we have absolutely wasted our position as sole World Power. We could have been a leader - set an example, created (benevolently) a "New World Order", promoted democracy through peacful means, and raised the standards of living for everyone. But, instead we apparently just wanted to get rich (more rich). So to benefit the American upper class we have pissed off the rest of the world, wasted our military resources on securing unrenewable natural resources and destroyed our own culture (the actual people who have to work for a living). Not only will the forces of war and global economics pressure our relations, but internal corruption will tear apart the future of this country, just like former Empires. As others rise into position of new super-powers, we will not have the resources of strategic "force projection" to reach parity in international disputes. Without economic, military or diplomatic powers, we will no longer be able to project our will onto the world.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
King of Sunset Town
O, it is excellent
To have a giant's strength; but it is tyrannous
to use it like a giant
-Shakespeare
Watch a big wheel turning round
Some go up and some go down
Some go thirsty some just drown
"That's the law round here"
Said the king of sunset town
And in the night he comes to me
And the square becomes a battlefield
Of staring eyes that can't explain
The insanity and the greater game
- Marillion, The King of Sunset Town, from Seasons End, 1989
Today Russia announced that Poland is now a nuclear target and cut off official ties to NATO, and we replied that we would be more than happy to defend Poland militarily. Not exactly the 21st century we might have hoped to live in. We have been antagonizing Russia since we promised not to expand NATO past Germany. Of course, countries like Poland deserve the protection of NATO, after their experience in WWII and the Soviet-era. But our expansion into Asia and countries like Georgia shows an aggressive determination to continue "containment." This strategy seems to me a bit late. Perhaps if reality was closer to Reagan's vision of nuclear disarmament by 1996, we would be in a safer position today. Or if we had rapidly expanded NATO in the 1990's while Russia was still wounded and our military was still at a Cold War strength. But we had such a rapid drawdown of our forces, our actual strength of influence was less than it could have been. And, continued nuclear disarmament did not proceed as forcefully it should have. People were quick to dismiss the Cold War as history, quickly receeding in time, without realizing its future implications and continued dangers.
Now, we have a return to the 1970s - the American economy in ruins, and the Russian economy experiencing a a resurgence because of revenue from higher hydro-carbon prices. So, now Russia has the means to make itself heard. As I noted earlier, Rice had to warn Russia about their bomber patrols off of Alaska. It wants to be taken seriously in global politics. For over fifteen years we have clearly not been taking Russia seriously, even though they never lost their means as a strategic power. But rather than reach compromises with them, we are still treating them as losers, and acting like the victors of the war.
One possible outcome from this month's events is the reinvestment in conventional forces. We have been reminded that there still are dangers out there, ones more scary than angry mobs with IEDs. There are still several strategic-level potential adversaries (i.e. China, India) that are investing in fifth-generation technology. Russia has become a premium-weapons supplier, and should they choose to deploy that equipment, their conventional forces could once again be a formidable threat. It would be wise to assume their threats are not just idle ones. There may be a realization that we still need progams like the F-22 in greater numbers. And, I would think we would be wise to invest in upgrading our current fleets of F-15 and F-16 to newer versions (block 60, for instance) in order to save money by buying proven and economical technology and fill the gap so we don't need to rush the unproven programs like the F-35. I've noted over at the Viper Lounge how we have been drastically reducing our capability while others increase theirs, such as Iran's new SA-20 missile.
Another issue here is one of credibility. We have told Russia that it is inappropriate for nations to invade other soverign nations in the 21st century. Yet, why should anyone take our moral high-ground seriously after the 2003 invasion of Iraq? For the first time in our 200 year history, we invaded another nation without specifically being provoked. This must have done serious damage to the perception of America trying to do the good thing. I would think our lectures would be taken as pure hippocracy.
Like the strategy of detente, there are those who wish to stabalize and therefore prolong continued antangonism. Certainly the faster we get the neo-cons from Washington, the safer we will be. Perhaps in the 22nd century we can get along with Russia.
To have a giant's strength; but it is tyrannous
to use it like a giant
-Shakespeare
Watch a big wheel turning round
Some go up and some go down
Some go thirsty some just drown
"That's the law round here"
Said the king of sunset town
And in the night he comes to me
And the square becomes a battlefield
Of staring eyes that can't explain
The insanity and the greater game
- Marillion, The King of Sunset Town, from Seasons End, 1989
Today Russia announced that Poland is now a nuclear target and cut off official ties to NATO, and we replied that we would be more than happy to defend Poland militarily. Not exactly the 21st century we might have hoped to live in. We have been antagonizing Russia since we promised not to expand NATO past Germany. Of course, countries like Poland deserve the protection of NATO, after their experience in WWII and the Soviet-era. But our expansion into Asia and countries like Georgia shows an aggressive determination to continue "containment." This strategy seems to me a bit late. Perhaps if reality was closer to Reagan's vision of nuclear disarmament by 1996, we would be in a safer position today. Or if we had rapidly expanded NATO in the 1990's while Russia was still wounded and our military was still at a Cold War strength. But we had such a rapid drawdown of our forces, our actual strength of influence was less than it could have been. And, continued nuclear disarmament did not proceed as forcefully it should have. People were quick to dismiss the Cold War as history, quickly receeding in time, without realizing its future implications and continued dangers.
Now, we have a return to the 1970s - the American economy in ruins, and the Russian economy experiencing a a resurgence because of revenue from higher hydro-carbon prices. So, now Russia has the means to make itself heard. As I noted earlier, Rice had to warn Russia about their bomber patrols off of Alaska. It wants to be taken seriously in global politics. For over fifteen years we have clearly not been taking Russia seriously, even though they never lost their means as a strategic power. But rather than reach compromises with them, we are still treating them as losers, and acting like the victors of the war.
One possible outcome from this month's events is the reinvestment in conventional forces. We have been reminded that there still are dangers out there, ones more scary than angry mobs with IEDs. There are still several strategic-level potential adversaries (i.e. China, India) that are investing in fifth-generation technology. Russia has become a premium-weapons supplier, and should they choose to deploy that equipment, their conventional forces could once again be a formidable threat. It would be wise to assume their threats are not just idle ones. There may be a realization that we still need progams like the F-22 in greater numbers. And, I would think we would be wise to invest in upgrading our current fleets of F-15 and F-16 to newer versions (block 60, for instance) in order to save money by buying proven and economical technology and fill the gap so we don't need to rush the unproven programs like the F-35. I've noted over at the Viper Lounge how we have been drastically reducing our capability while others increase theirs, such as Iran's new SA-20 missile.
Another issue here is one of credibility. We have told Russia that it is inappropriate for nations to invade other soverign nations in the 21st century. Yet, why should anyone take our moral high-ground seriously after the 2003 invasion of Iraq? For the first time in our 200 year history, we invaded another nation without specifically being provoked. This must have done serious damage to the perception of America trying to do the good thing. I would think our lectures would be taken as pure hippocracy.
Like the strategy of detente, there are those who wish to stabalize and therefore prolong continued antangonism. Certainly the faster we get the neo-cons from Washington, the safer we will be. Perhaps in the 22nd century we can get along with Russia.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Friday, March 07, 2008
Random Notes
Last book read - Wikinomics. It wasn't exactly the book I thought it would be. It was a little dry and repetitive, probably more compelling to the business mind, than the technologist. It is interesting to think about open source as bringing us into a new era. I was listening to Leo recently discuss Microsoft, and he pointed out that Microsoft created their own industry and set the paradigm that we should pay for software, but those days might be coming to end, hence their need to buy Yahoo and get into the online game. As I've stated before Google has really set a new standard with their free applications. Additionally I think the days of the "classic" PC will come to an end. It seems that most people don't care about what OS they use anymore. Most of the tasks previously requiring a PC will move to other devices. Smart phones will take up IM, Chat, email and some browsing. Game consoles have already taken over the gaming side of computers. I use my DVR to do more video editing than the PC. This may leave the home computer as an entertainment component, with its main importance being a home server to store multimedia files. I'm already considering building my next PC as an HTPC. Strangely, ten years ago it seemed like such an advancement for PCs to move into the "Tower" form factor to free up valuable space, but the trend seems to be moving back to those wide boxes.
In other news. . .
Russia is once again displaying its military might and is trying to re-enter global politics. They recently reaffirmed the possibility of first use of nuclear weapons.
They have also recently begun playing games with their bombers, after sixteen years of non-use. Besides flying into American and British airspace, they seem to like the USS Nimitz, first buzzing them in February, and then again this week. It will be interesting to see what Global Chess moves result from this activity.
In other news. . .
Russia is once again displaying its military might and is trying to re-enter global politics. They recently reaffirmed the possibility of first use of nuclear weapons.
They have also recently begun playing games with their bombers, after sixteen years of non-use. Besides flying into American and British airspace, they seem to like the USS Nimitz, first buzzing them in February, and then again this week. It will be interesting to see what Global Chess moves result from this activity.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
99 Red Balloons
For those of us who grew up during the Cold War, we were well aware of what would probably happen if the US and the Soviets went to war. Within a few hours everything would go to Hell (almost literally). What fascinates me is what would have happened if the Cold War had become a hot one using conventional weapons and leaving the nukes hidden away. Many films and books have presented various scenarios, most of which I find highly unlikely. What I'd really like to know is how the government thought this might happen, how they trained for it, and what plans, procedures and such existed for it. Obviously the Powers that be thought a conventional war was at least a possibility, otherwise they wouldn't rationally have spent the hundreds of trillions of dollars on forty years of military build-up. So far the first bit of info I've come across is "Dropshot", the war plan originally conceived in 1949.
This essay by John Reilly explores the US plan for World War III (Dropshot) circa 1957. In the age before ICBMs became the main strategic weapon, it was still seemingly possible for a U.S./ Soviet war to be fought conventionally. The plan was for an initally defensive war against an aggressive Russia that was actively seeking expansion and eventually some sort of global domination. This alternative history explores how this might have happened under the right conditions. Reilly makes some interesting political and economic points along the way.
"There is a good argument to be made that the United States took as little hurt from the Cold War as it did because the president during the 1950s was that logistics expert, Dwight David Eisenhower. . . Using his own good judgment to gauge just what the Soviets could or would do, he starved the U.S. military during the 1950s to let give the consumer economy room to breathe." Compare this to the 1990s of the Clinton administration, where the military was starved, but the economy did quite well.
Reilly contemplates what would have happened if Eisenhower had been replaced by Adlai Stevenson. His ambition to destroy the communist bloc was similar to Reagan's, although his timing would have been wrong. It wasn't until the 1980s, when the Soviet's finally "exhausted the growth capacity of the command economy," that the opportunity to pressure the Soviets farther finally occurred. In my opinion, Reagan's administration may not have been clever enough to know with certainty that they could break the Soviets by outspending them militarily. Reagan played a dangerous game of brinkmanship, such as the deployment of the Pershing II missiles. If they were confident of economic victory, these aggressive stances seem unnecessary. I think Reagan got lucky. He took a big gamble that could have got us all killed, but was fortunate enough to find success.
Also in Reilly's scenario, Stalin stays in power. If Stalin had lived longer, past 1953, he may have planned to fight a decisive war. If Stevenson backed up his own idealism by sending forces to Europe, Stalin very well could have countered by launching his offensive. Thirty million Americans would be needed for service, and unlike World War II, this one would be devastating for the American economy. The U.S. would have been forced to become a command-economy state.
The plan was for NATO to hold the front, until the American forces could arrive, which could be a year. IT suggest that the Soviets could very well advance past Germany, and the UK would probably not be held.The second phase would be an offensive to occupy Russia. Dropshot notes that invasion from the Far East or the Middle East would be impractical, and only an offensive straight in from Europe would work.
Finally, the aftermath of a successful war would have had terrible effects on the world economy, although it may have been less damaging than World War II. Russia might have been able to transition to a market economy with less resistance. In America, collectivism and Socialism might have become instituted as the command economy which helped win the war would be viewed as superior to the market economy. The social revolution of the 1960s would not occur, and presumably the pessimism of the 40s and 50s would be reinforced, with the continuing view that the world is a dangerous place. Positively, The arms race would never have occured, and the threat of nuclear annihilation would be gone.
But, would the outcome have really been so positive? I certainly don't think a communist victory would be a good thing. However, An American victory might have had its downsides as well. The US would have global domination of the advanced world, and without any opposition would be free to do anything it wishes. This unhindered power may have been too much to contain, and would probably be used on scale far exceeding what we have seen in the 21st Century, where the US has done things that would have previously been unthinkable, both constitutionally and morally, due to the possibility of destroying the integrity of our 200 year history. [1] In the 80s miniseries Amerika, the Soviets achieved global victory, and the conditions under their rule, however intolerable, were unescapable "There was nowhere else to go." A post-World War III Socialist America could have utopian possibilities, [2] but it would also have the potential to become a tyrannical, dystopian police state. Having two equally-matched superpowers during the Cold War meant there was a Yin/Yang balance, and there were possibilities to choose from, depending on what type of system your allegiences might fall.
Geek edits:
[1] example: Star Wars - Palpatine and the fall of the senate
[2] example: Star Trek (although despite the superficial utopian Socialism, ST could be viewed as a communist society , see this article for explanation.
This essay by John Reilly explores the US plan for World War III (Dropshot) circa 1957. In the age before ICBMs became the main strategic weapon, it was still seemingly possible for a U.S./ Soviet war to be fought conventionally. The plan was for an initally defensive war against an aggressive Russia that was actively seeking expansion and eventually some sort of global domination. This alternative history explores how this might have happened under the right conditions. Reilly makes some interesting political and economic points along the way.
"There is a good argument to be made that the United States took as little hurt from the Cold War as it did because the president during the 1950s was that logistics expert, Dwight David Eisenhower. . . Using his own good judgment to gauge just what the Soviets could or would do, he starved the U.S. military during the 1950s to let give the consumer economy room to breathe." Compare this to the 1990s of the Clinton administration, where the military was starved, but the economy did quite well.
Reilly contemplates what would have happened if Eisenhower had been replaced by Adlai Stevenson. His ambition to destroy the communist bloc was similar to Reagan's, although his timing would have been wrong. It wasn't until the 1980s, when the Soviet's finally "exhausted the growth capacity of the command economy," that the opportunity to pressure the Soviets farther finally occurred. In my opinion, Reagan's administration may not have been clever enough to know with certainty that they could break the Soviets by outspending them militarily. Reagan played a dangerous game of brinkmanship, such as the deployment of the Pershing II missiles. If they were confident of economic victory, these aggressive stances seem unnecessary. I think Reagan got lucky. He took a big gamble that could have got us all killed, but was fortunate enough to find success.
Also in Reilly's scenario, Stalin stays in power. If Stalin had lived longer, past 1953, he may have planned to fight a decisive war. If Stevenson backed up his own idealism by sending forces to Europe, Stalin very well could have countered by launching his offensive. Thirty million Americans would be needed for service, and unlike World War II, this one would be devastating for the American economy. The U.S. would have been forced to become a command-economy state.
The plan was for NATO to hold the front, until the American forces could arrive, which could be a year. IT suggest that the Soviets could very well advance past Germany, and the UK would probably not be held.The second phase would be an offensive to occupy Russia. Dropshot notes that invasion from the Far East or the Middle East would be impractical, and only an offensive straight in from Europe would work.
Finally, the aftermath of a successful war would have had terrible effects on the world economy, although it may have been less damaging than World War II. Russia might have been able to transition to a market economy with less resistance. In America, collectivism and Socialism might have become instituted as the command economy which helped win the war would be viewed as superior to the market economy. The social revolution of the 1960s would not occur, and presumably the pessimism of the 40s and 50s would be reinforced, with the continuing view that the world is a dangerous place. Positively, The arms race would never have occured, and the threat of nuclear annihilation would be gone.
But, would the outcome have really been so positive? I certainly don't think a communist victory would be a good thing. However, An American victory might have had its downsides as well. The US would have global domination of the advanced world, and without any opposition would be free to do anything it wishes. This unhindered power may have been too much to contain, and would probably be used on scale far exceeding what we have seen in the 21st Century, where the US has done things that would have previously been unthinkable, both constitutionally and morally, due to the possibility of destroying the integrity of our 200 year history. [1] In the 80s miniseries Amerika, the Soviets achieved global victory, and the conditions under their rule, however intolerable, were unescapable "There was nowhere else to go." A post-World War III Socialist America could have utopian possibilities, [2] but it would also have the potential to become a tyrannical, dystopian police state. Having two equally-matched superpowers during the Cold War meant there was a Yin/Yang balance, and there were possibilities to choose from, depending on what type of system your allegiences might fall.
Geek edits:
[1] example: Star Wars - Palpatine and the fall of the senate
[2] example: Star Trek (although despite the superficial utopian Socialism, ST could be viewed as a communist society , see this article for explanation.
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