King of Sunset Town

O, it is excellent
To have a giant's strength; but it is tyrannous
to use it like a giant

         -Shakespeare

Watch a big wheel turning round
Some go up and some go down
Some go thirsty some just drown
"That's the law round here"
Said the king of sunset town

And in the night he comes to me
And the square becomes a battlefield
Of staring eyes that can't explain
The insanity and the greater game

         - Marillion, The King of Sunset Town, from Seasons End, 1989

Today Russia announced that Poland is now a nuclear target and cut off official ties to NATO, and we replied that we would be more than happy to defend Poland militarily. Not exactly the 21st century we might have hoped to live in. We have been antagonizing Russia since we promised not to expand NATO past Germany. Of course, countries like Poland deserve the protection of NATO, after their experience in WWII and the Soviet-era. But our expansion into Asia and countries like Georgia shows an aggressive determination to continue "containment." This strategy seems to me a bit late. Perhaps if reality was closer to Reagan's vision of nuclear disarmament by 1996, we would be in a safer position today. Or if we had rapidly expanded NATO in the 1990's while Russia was still wounded and our military was still at a Cold War strength. But we had such a rapid drawdown of our forces, our actual strength of influence was less than it could have been. And, continued nuclear disarmament did not proceed as forcefully it should have. People were quick to dismiss the Cold War as history, quickly receeding in time, without realizing its future implications and continued dangers.

Now, we have a return to the 1970s - the American economy in ruins, and the Russian economy experiencing a a resurgence because of revenue from higher hydro-carbon prices. So, now Russia has the means to make itself heard. As I noted earlier, Rice had to warn Russia about their bomber patrols off of Alaska. It wants to be taken seriously in global politics. For over fifteen years we have clearly not been taking Russia seriously, even though they never lost their means as a strategic power. But rather than reach compromises with them, we are still treating them as losers, and acting like the victors of the war.

One possible outcome from this month's events is the reinvestment in conventional forces. We have been reminded that there still are dangers out there, ones more scary than angry mobs with IEDs. There are still several strategic-level potential adversaries (i.e. China, India) that are investing in fifth-generation technology. Russia has become a premium-weapons supplier, and should they choose to deploy that equipment, their conventional forces could once again be a formidable threat. It would be wise to assume their threats are not just idle ones. There may be a realization that we still need progams like the F-22 in greater numbers. And, I would think we would be wise to invest in upgrading our current fleets of F-15 and F-16 to newer versions (block 60, for instance) in order to save money by buying proven and economical technology and fill the gap so we don't need to rush the unproven programs like the F-35. I've noted over at the Viper Lounge how we have been drastically reducing our capability while others increase theirs, such as Iran's new SA-20 missile.

Another issue here is one of credibility. We have told Russia that it is inappropriate for nations to invade other soverign nations in the 21st century. Yet, why should anyone take our moral high-ground seriously after the 2003 invasion of Iraq? For the first time in our 200 year history, we invaded another nation without specifically being provoked. This must have done serious damage to the perception of America trying to do the good thing. I would think our lectures would be taken as pure hippocracy.

Like the strategy of detente, there are those who wish to stabalize and therefore prolong continued antangonism. Certainly the faster we get the neo-cons from Washington, the safer we will be. Perhaps in the 22nd century we can get along with Russia.